21:14Reindeer Care - Who Bought Bitcoin at Over $ 30K!
Today's correction did not frighten anyone, but it is clear that sooner or later there will be a more significant drop. Consensus is contraindicated for the markets, and after Bitcoin left above 26K and continuously updated highs during the week, a situation developed when almost 100% of Bitcoin owners were in positive territory. And it can't go on like this, the crowd can't be in the black.
Today, dynamics was added to the markets - they shook out those who went above 30K and did it with a shoulder, shook out those who like to put stops on the spot, provoked them to go short if there were still fans of such unnatural action for the crypto market.
The question is different - will there be a big correction, like 2018, or the second half of 2019?
The main reason that brought Bitcoin to where we see it in 2020 is the monetary policy of national regulators, which generated almost $ 10 trillion during 2020, setting a historic record for the year for this indicator.
The second reason - interest in Bitcoin on the part of large players, stems from the first reason and will not go anywhere either.
Structures that bought Bitcoin around 20K, as well as those that did it around 20-25K, usually did so because of the expected consequences from the emergence of a new 10 trillion dollars. Since nothing changes according to item 1, it is logical that item 2 continues to work.
The third global reason for the growth of Bitcoin - the attack on privacy, also has not gone anywhere. Wrote about it on the stock channel and many times on this one.
It is unlikely that all AML / KYC trash will end in 2021, on the contrary, it only gets worse. In the Russian Federation, in general, they begin to monitor small amounts, such as postal orders for 100K rubles. And operations from 600K rubles are now subject to mandatory monitoring. Roughly the same thing is happening in Europe and the United States, not to mention China.
Therefore, there will be leaks, there is no way without it, but large market participants will regard this as an opportunity. And most likely, we will not see Bitcoin below 20K.
What events could seriously hit Bitcoin?
Tightening monetary policy, raising dollar rates, or at least curtailing the rate of its generation. This will crash the stock markets. Over the past year, Bitcoin has followed them. But it is not a fact that it will necessarily be so, let me remind you that in 2019 Bitcoin and the stock market had an inverse correlation. But if there is no inverse correlation, but a straight one remains, then in this case the main cryptocurrency will sink and go flat.
But the tightening of monetary policy this year will hardly even be considered before the second half of the year. It is better to drop the dollar gradually than the markets at once - I think this is how the situation will be decided.
When market capitalization exceeds $ 1 trillion, and Bitcoin will be talked about from every iron, it is very likely that regulatory pressure will increase.
But the first option will hit mainly altcoins (and for a number of reasons it is unlikely). Both options are unlikely to be possible until mid-February, due to the change of power in the United States.
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