Why bitcoin's pullback could be 'healthy' for a run to $100,000

Bitcoin may have tumbled nearly 20% from an all-time high of nearly $65,000 it hit just 10 days ago, but that might not make $100,000 by the end of the year any less likely. 

In fact, according to one forecaster who has a $100,000 year-end price target for bitcoin, a "healthy" pullback might actually strengthen the bull case.

"We don't see this necessarily as something that's taking us to ... a 2017-type market top," Fundstrat Lead Digital Asset Strategist David Grider told Yahoo Finance on Friday, harkening back to the 2017 top that proceeded an 80% collapse. "But more so as something where the market needs to have a healthy cooling off period before the market can continue forward."

Among fellow bulls who share Grider's opinion in predicting significant upside to come, many point to bitcoin's boom-and-bust cycles tied back to the mechanics of bitcoin's code which automatically cuts the price paid to miners confirming transactions on the network in half roughly every four years in an event dubbed a "halving." In May 2020, bitcoin experienced its third "halving" when the miner reward was automatically reduced from 12.5 bitcoin to 6.25. Historically, bitcoin's price has rallied after those events, as most recently marked by the nearly 3,000% rally that followed in the 18 months after the second "halving."

On top of that, other technical traders have increasingly pointed out how well another model tied to bitcoin's halving has tracked bitcoin's price rise over the years. Referred to as the "stock-to-flow" model, it measures existing supplies, usually of commodities, against the flow at which new inventory is produced. In the case of bitcoin, halving events, by definition, cut that flow in half. When applying the measure to bitcoin, the founder of crypto investment firm Pantera Capital, Dan Morehead, expressed his surprise at how bitcoin's price has moved in lockstep with projections.



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